Dubai Real Estate Industry /Dubai Residential Market Analysis - 2010
 
Dubai Residential Market Analysis - 2010:

To project Dubai’s Residential Property Outlook for 2010, we have used 2 different scenarios:
 
  • Scenario 1: Conservative Assessment.
  • Scenario 2: Very Conservative Assessment.
 
 
Separate assumptions are used in each analysis to project the outcome.
 
 
Scenario 1 (Conservative) Assumptions:
 
  • 30% of increase in population is considered as Addressable Market on the Demand Side.
  • 40% of the previous year & 30% of the current year Planned Roll-Out units are considered as Completed on the Supply Side. Meaning that in total more than 63% of overall Planned Roll-Out units will be completed, and only 37% remain incomplete.

This is a very optimistic view of the supply side, which has been lagging behind on an average 2-year delay.

  • Conclusion: In this scenario, we anticipate a constant & continuous Under-Supply situation in the residential property market to prevail.
Dubai's Residential Property Market Situation - Scenario 1 Conservative
 
 
 
Scenario 2 (Very Conservative) Assumptions:
 
  • 20% of increase in population is considered as Addressable Market on the Demand Side.
    This is a very conservative assumption on the Demand Side.
  • 60% of the previous year & 40% of the current year Planned Roll-Out units are considered as Completed on the Supply Side. Meaning that in total more than 88% of overall Planned Roll-Out units will be completed, and only 12% remain incomplete.
  • This is an extremely optimistic view of the supply side, which has been lagging behind on an average 2-year delay.
  • Conclusion: In this scenario, which is extremely unlikely, we anticipate an overall 8% Over-Supply situation in the residential property market by 2010.
    However, it is our conviction that due to sever shortages in construction resources, delays will prevail thus creating an Under-Supply situation more likely.
 
Dubai's Residential Property Market Situation - Scenario 2 Very Conservative
 
 
 
 
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