| Dubai Real Estate Industry
/Dubai Residential Market
Analysis - 2010 |
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| Dubai Residential Market Analysis - 2010: |
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| To project Dubai’s Residential Property Outlook
for 2010, we have used 2 different scenarios: |
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- Scenario 1: Conservative Assessment.
- Scenario 2: Very Conservative Assessment.
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| Separate assumptions are used in each analysis to project
the outcome. |
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| Scenario 1 (Conservative) Assumptions: |
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- 30% of increase in population is considered
as Addressable Market on the Demand Side.
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- 40% of the previous year & 30%
of the current year Planned Roll-Out units are considered
as Completed on the Supply Side. Meaning
that in total more than 63% of overall
Planned Roll-Out units will be completed, and only 37%
remain incomplete.
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This is a very optimistic view of the
supply side, which has been lagging behind on an average
2-year delay.
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- Conclusion: In this scenario, we anticipate
a constant & continuous Under-Supply situation
in the residential property market to prevail.
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Dubai's Residential
Property Market Situation - Scenario 1 Conservative |
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| Scenario 2 (Very Conservative) Assumptions: |
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- 20% of increase in population is considered
as Addressable Market on the Demand Side.
This is a very conservative assumption on the
Demand Side.
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- 60% of the previous year & 40% of the current year
Planned Roll-Out units are considered as Completed on
the Supply Side. Meaning that in total more than 88% of
overall Planned Roll-Out units will be completed, and
only 12% remain incomplete.
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- This is an extremely optimistic view
of the supply side, which has been lagging behind on an
average 2-year delay.
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- Conclusion: In this scenario, which
is extremely unlikely, we anticipate an overall 8% Over-Supply
situation in the residential property market by 2010.
However, it is our conviction that due to sever shortages
in construction resources, delays will prevail thus creating
an Under-Supply situation more likely.
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Dubai's Residential
Property Market Situation - Scenario 2 Very Conservative |
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